Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread

[d5000]

I think PPC price is about to bottom out and go up again.

Why? PPC had a drop in bids at BTC-E at really low levels yesterday (under 200 BTC), but now the bids are rising pretty fast again, for now they are at 240+ BTC. May be the turning point as people realize that PPC actually is cheap at these levels, compared with LTC (which has higher inflation as we saw in the last postings).

Possibly PPC will drop to 0.0011 or even 0.0010X BTC or 0.15 US$, but not lower. (Obviously I can be wrong, but I think I'm right here)

[MeBeingAwesome]

I think PPC price is about to bottom out and go up again.

Why? PPC had a drop in bids at BTC-E at really low levels yesterday (under 200 BTC), but now the bids are rising pretty fast again, for now they are at 240+ BTC. May be the turning point as people realize that PPC actually is cheap at these levels, compared with LTC (which has higher inflation as we saw in the last postings).

Possibly PPC will drop to 0.0011 or even 0.0010X BTC or 0.15 US$, but not lower. (Obviously I can be wrong, but I think I'm right here)

Agreed. Another part of the problem is that trading volumes are well below what they were in mid-to-late April, combined with a massive 100k sell wall I saw pop up yesterday. It's re-positioned at a few different levels, which I'm thinking might indicate a large holder is trying to drive the price down to purchase more. With such low trade volumes, those kind of ask walls can cause serious fluctuations in value.

[calian]

This is from the price speculation thread on bitcointalk. Hopefully the conversation will move over here.

ppcoin currently has the lowest inflation rate (20~30% annual) among all altcoins, only second to bitcoin (~10% annual).

PPC does not have the lowest inflation rate. Where do you get that number?

Here are the facts I have. PPC has out inflated LTC and hasn't been around nearly as long. It produces around 411 coins per block. Bitcoin is at 25 coins per block. Litecoin is at 50 coins per block. Mincoin is at 2 coins  per block. As a result of epic growth PPcoin has 19 million coins in circulation to LTC's 18 million.

At this point in time it's not really a big deal because 19 million is low, but it's not the lowest inflation rate of all alt-coins based on the numbers I'm working with. I don't know where you get the values of 20% - 30% inflation, and how do you figure it's the lowest?

I know it's your coin so you're going to promote it but what we are seeing in the market are signals of a period of high inflation, and market cap shrinkage, which isn't a bad thing but don't convince people to invest heavy fiat into this coin when it's rise is truly uncertain. I await the figures backing up your claims.

...

More miners should raise the difficulty which should slow the inflation rate and that could happen as soon as ASICS ship.

I'm mining PPC. I predict someday each PPC will be worth $1 and when I mine I think of each PPC as $1. I also think the price of PPC will eventually go up, but the price of PPC will be correlated with the market cap just like it is with all coins and only when the market cap is brought up to a level above the total amount of PPC in circulation will we see PPC price at $1 and up.

This would mean PPC needs a market cap of $19 million or more. LTC has a market cap if $50 million but is selling at $2-3, Bitcoin has a market cap of over a billion and is selling at $100-130, let's see if PPC gets to a dollar when it's market cap is over $20 million, I predict that is what it will take and that is possible but probably not going to happen anytime soon. The only way it will happen is for you and others to set up sites where people can buy PPC directly with USD, not buy it with BTC or LTC. Then there has to be many sites set up for people to spend PPC. Finally there has to be some job sites for people to earn PPC.

Current PPC market cap is $ 3,137,639 and it just lost -7.97%. Unless the trend changes I expect the price to keep going down until a development in PPC changes the trend.

...

Supply is high and demand is low. I think this can change over a period of 6 months but the longer supply increases the bigger the market cap will have to be for each coin to be worth $1. So while I know PPC is worth something, and worth more than 0.003 in the long term and definitely worth more than it's going for right now, I don't know that it will ever reach $1.Since the poll is asking where I think it will be in the next 45 days I think right now there are signals that the price has to go down further before the slow climb back up so I think for another few weeks to a month we will see it dip down to 0.0010 and then 0.0007 and from there it will go back up. Because of this, if you're thinking about PPC as a short term investment it's a very bad time to buy PPC. Wait another couple of weeks when supply is increased even further and then buy as much as you can while it's at around 0.0007, if you buy right now you wont get the maximum amount of profits as a speculator.

I agree with much of Luckybit's read of the market. I think he's unaware that PPC targets 30 minutes per PoW block rather than every 10 minutes like many of the others. This is probably part of why Sunny says it has a lower inflation rate than most. Also 2 million PPC were produced in the first day. Obviously there hasn't been a day like that since. Nonetheless I think the downward trend may continue for a while. If you're trying to make a profit, not only does PPC need to beat fiat, it has to beat holding BTC and that's a tough thing to do until BTC reaches market saturation. I think there will come a day where the massive energy costs of the bitcoin mining machine cause its costs to exceed a more efficient currency like PPCoin. Hopefully the market factors it in well in advance of that point. However we're still a long ways from that scenario right now.

[calian]

Also I've been paying attention to the market cap (currently 26941 BTC ~ $3,400,000.00). I can't find a way to track the market cap directly in USD though?

Check out my site: http://coinmarketcap.com

I'm working on making longer term graphs for it.

gliss I like your site. How do you decide which ones to track though? cryptocoincharts.info has a bunch that you don't so far though you seem to have most of the main ones. Maybe make a second page for all the ridiculously obscure coins so they don't annoy people loading the main page.

[d5000]

Market report for the end of sunday:

Bids at BTC-E continue growing (for now, 320 BTC), and asks are slowly declining. Bid/ask relation is still very low. But I still think we are at the (short-term) bottom or near.

Walls: 50.000 bid wall at 0.00116, 33.000 ask wall at 0.00128. Last trade BTC-E: 0.00124.

[calian]

Well the 50 BTC wall was nearly all eaten. Right now we have 30 BTC in bids at 0.00114. Last trade at 0.00122. I think we're going to continue to see a bear market in alts. PPC was one of the first to experience it so hopefully it will be one of the first to turn around but we'll have to wait and see. I feel like fair market value per PPC right now should be around $0.10 and right now we're at $0.15 so if we over correct to $0.08 that would take us back down near 0.00083 BTC as a potential bottom.

[calian]

OK, a new low for BTC bids that I've seen: Total BTC bids: 185.38335102, current price 0.00116. The PoW block reward is up to 439.44 now. USD market cap: $2,712,560. I'm now looking for a USD market cap below $1,500,000.

[d5000]

You are right, bids had recovered only temporary, now they are again in the 180-220 range.

At least I observed the bearish channel is now a bit flatter. When I see this confirmed I will try to draw a TA picture

[calian]

There's a new tool for seeing PPC trades but for some reason the numbers in the chart don't seem accurate to me compared to what I see on btc-e? http://www.gobitgo.com/charts/?chartID=1049

[calian]

Another new BTC bid low: Total BTC: 151.19154469, less asks too: 779003.33845226 PPC for sale. Last: 0.00115. Maybe people are shifting to Sunny's exchange from BTC-E?

[Gliss]

Also I've been paying attention to the market cap (currently 26941 BTC ~ $3,400,000.00). I can't find a way to track the market cap directly in USD though?

Check out my site: http://coinmarketcap.com

I'm working on making longer term graphs for it.

gliss I like your site. How do you decide which ones to track though? cryptocoincharts.info has a bunch that you don't so far though you seem to have most of the main ones. Maybe make a second page for all the ridiculously obscure coins so they don't annoy people loading the main page.

I tracked the ones that were on a exchange with an available API.  I see cryptsy has recently added an API, so I will add those other coins shortly.

[calian]

The number of registered users here is the thing that surprised me out of these. For comparison bitcointalk has 123940 members and the litecoin forum has 4164 members right now. We also briefly touched 0.00092 which is a low that hasn't been seen in a while.

Today's stats:
Forum Stats 839 Posts in 89 Topics by 2833 Members.

Market   Latest trade           Volume                Low                High
BTC-e   0.00112000 BTC    407,094 PPC    472 BTC   0.00092000 BTC   0.00145000 BTC
Vircurex   0.00115295 BTC    30,552 PPC    36 BTC   0.00112100 BTC   0.00129870 BTC
Cryptsy   0.00106000 BTC    945 PPC        1 BTC   0.00106000 BTC   0.00120000 BTC
Bter        0.00124000 BTC    754 PPC         1 BTC   0.00112000 BTC   0.00124000 BTC   

BTC-e Sell orders
Total PPC: 799380.31975989
BTC-e Buy orders
Total BTC: 289.13135198

Blocks   Difficulty   Reward (PoS)   Price (BTC)   Market cap (BTC)
51441   271793   437.92      0.00113319   21698

USD cap      Price (USD)   Total Supply   $ % change (24h)
$ 2,576,076   $ 0.13   19,147,905 PPC   -6.47 %
                           BTC price % change (24h)
                           -0.70 %

Sources:
http://ppcointalk.org/index.php
http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/#jump-ppc-btc
https://btc-e.com/exchange/ppc_btc
http://dustcoin.com/mining
http://coinmarketcap.com/

[d5000]

Seems that yesterday was a bit of a rollercoaster ride (0.0009-0.0014). Was someone pumpin-and-dumping?

Today things seem to have stabilized a bit again. Price is 0.00115. Bids at BTC-E again a bit higher (300 BTC), but asks too are high (914K).

[sahkan]

Give it a week to move up as the BTC diff went up.

[craslovell]

I believe PPC has a lot of room to move up. This extreme surge in bitcoin difficulty may ultimately help PPC. The ASICs have been let loose.