Lesson: Contrarian Trading

[whifmoi]

... How can you objectively make a judgement to hang on or to stop loss (which probably would look like a "run with the herd" because the herd have been leaving due the reason you are to accept). ...

... However one has to understand the risk with this method.

There are no risks on exchange rate movement, if you believe in the merit of your assets. I now explain why.

In my lesson above with the two assets Bitcoin and Peercoin, you own 10 BTC and 5000 PPC at an exchange rate of 0.002 BTC/PPC. After some time the exchange rate suddenly drops to 0.001 BTC/PPC.
a) If you believe in BTC only your wealth dropped
b) If you believe in PPC only your wealth increased
c) If you believe into BTC and PPC nothing changed

For payments there are ounces of gold and silver only, and you own 10 ounces of gold and 500 ounces of silver at an exchange rate of 0.02 gold ounce/silver ounce. After some time the exchange rate suddenly drops to 0.01 gold ounce/silver ounce.
a) If you believe in gold only your wealth dropped
b) If you believe in silver only your wealth increased
c) If you believe into gold and silver nothing changed

For savings you own 1000 USD and 100 shares from the Intel company at an exchange rate of 10 USD/Intel share. After some time the exchange rate suddenly drops to 5 Intel share/USD.
a) If you believe in USD only your wealth dropped
b) If you believe in Intel shares only your wealth increased
c) If you believe into USD and Intel shares nothing changed

Please do not answer impulsively, take your time to think about it. This makes it absolutely unnecessary to set stop loss limits, if you believe in both assets. And you should only own valuable assets, that you really believe in.

I have read these days that the cash of Warren Buffet is 60 billion USD. A few years ago it was 40 billion USD. Probably he does not think this radically as me, but the result is the same. Take the gain of the rising company shares (distribute assets) and wait on the next crash. Bitcoin movement learnt me that downwards is as good as upwards.

[whifmoi]

MAKE THIS PPC BUYER ON VIRCUREX A FAIR PRICE PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEASE!

[whifmoi]

I ran out of space on my second post, so I continue here.

My Trades

Date       Time     Type PPC_Quantity BTC_Price  BTC_Balance PPC_Balance   Spot    BTC_weight PPC_weight
2013-10-04 00:09:47 sell   7.00000000 0.00242900
2013-10-04 00:09:48 sell   7.00000000 0.00244900 4.09354413  1706.53960440 0.00240 50.0%      50.0%
2013-10-04 01:08:08 sell   7.00000000 0.00246900
2013-10-04 01:08:13 sell   6.63992000 0.00248900
2013-10-04 01:58:30 sell   0.36008000 0.00248900
2013-10-04 01:58:36 sell   7.00000000 0.00250900
2013-10-04 02:01:07 sell   7.00000000 0.00252900
2013-10-04 02:02:53 sell   7.00000000 0.00254900 4.18118352  1671.53960440 0.00255 49.5%      50.5%
2013-10-04 03:52:23 sell   7.00000000 0.00256900
2013-10-04 03:52:24 sell   7.00000000 0.00258900
2013-10-04 03:52:30 sell   7.00000000 0.00260900   
2013-10-04 04:00:39 sell   6.99950000 0.00262900
2013-10-04 04:01:50 sell   7.00000000 0.00264900
2013-10-04 04:08:26 sell   7.00000000 0.00266900
2013-10-04 07:50:52 sell   7.00000000 0.00268900   
2013-10-04 07:51:10 sell   7.00000000 0.00270900
2013-10-04 08:10:36 sell   7.00000000 0.00272900
2013-10-04 08:10:36 sell   6.15897935 0.00274900
2013-10-04 08:11:10 sell   0.84102065 0.00274900
2013-10-04 08:11:10 sell   7.00000000 0.00276900
2013-10-04 08:14:53 sell   7.00000000 0.00278900
2013-10-04 08:18:04 sell   7.00000000 0.00280900
2013-10-04 08:18:05 sell   6.70000000 0.00282900
2013-10-04 08:19:08 sell   0.30000000 0.00282900 4.44515528  1573.54010440 0.00274 50.8%      49.2%
2013-10-04 09:11:37 buy    9.90000000 0.00270100
2013-10-04 09:11:37 buy    9.90000000 0.00267100
2013-10-04 09:11:37 buy    9.90000000 0.00264100
2013-10-04 09:11:37 buy    9.90000000 0.00261100 4.33997768  1613.06090440 0.00273 49.6%      50.4%
2013-10-04 09:37:41 sell   9.00000000 0.00278900
2013-10-04 09:37:41 sell   9.00000000 0.00281900
2013-10-04 09:38:51 sell   9.00000000 0.00284900
2013-10-04 09:38:52 sell   7.00000000 0.00286900 4.43598130  1579.06090440 0.00283 49.8%      50.2%
2013-10-04 09:50:55 sell   7.00000000 0.00288900
2013-10-04 10:16:01 sell   7.00000000 0.00290900
2013-10-04 10:16:01 sell   7.00000000 0.00292900
2013-10-04 10:30:26 sell   7.00000000 0.00294900
2013-10-04 10:30:26 sell   7.00000000 0.00296900
2013-10-04 10:52:38 sell   7.00000000 0.00298900
2013-10-04 10:54:12 sell   9.00000000 0.00302900
2013-10-04 10:55:25 sell   9.00000000 0.00305900
2013-10-04 10:55:25 sell   9.00000000 0.00308900
2013-10-04 10:55:26 sell   9.00000000 0.00311900 4.66961514  1501.06090440 0.00312 49.9%      50.1%
2013-10-04 13:56:47 sell   9.00000000 0.00317900
2013-10-04 14:02:41 sell   9.00000000 0.00320900
2013-10-04 14:03:54 sell   9.00000000 0.00323900
2013-10-04 14:06:32 sell   9.00000000 0.00326900
2013-10-04 14:06:32 sell   9.00000000 0.00329900
2013-10-04 14:07:17 sell   9.00000000 0.00332900
2013-10-04 14:14:18 sell   9.00000000 0.00335900
2013-10-04 14:14:18 sell   9.00000000 0.00338900
2013-10-04 14:14:19 sell   9.00000000 0.00341900 4.93629972  1420.06090440 0.00345 50.2%      49.8%
2013-10-04 17:37:26 buy    9.90000000 0.00307100
2013-10-04 17:39:49 buy    9.88010000 0.00305100
2013-10-04 17:40:06 buy    9.87880239 0.00303100 4.84580999  1449.66048899 0.00345 49.2%      50.8%
2013-10-04 22:15:20 sell   9.00000000 0.00341900
2013-10-04 22:15:25 sell   9.00000000 0.00344900
2013-10-04 22:23:38 sell   9.00000000 0.00347900
2013-10-04 23:16:13 sell   9.00000000 0.00350900
2013-10-04 23:16:13 sell   9.00000000 0.00353900
2013-10-04 23:16:13 sell   9.00000000 0.00356900
2013-10-04 23:16:13 sell   9.00000000 0.00359900
2013-10-04 23:24:37 sell   9.90000000 0.00363900
2013-10-04 23:24:37 sell   9.90000000 0.00368900
2013-10-04 23:24:37 sell   9.90000000 0.00373900
2013-10-04 23:37:39 sell   9.90000000 0.00378900
2013-10-04 23:58:20 sell   9.90000000 0.00383900 5.25114522  1337.16048899 0.00400 49.5%      50.5%
Date       Time     Type PPC_Quantity BTC_Price  BTC_Balance PPC_Balance   Spot    BTC_weight PPC_weight
2013-10-05 00:53:55 buy    9.89990000 0.00351100
2013-10-05 00:54:25 buy    9.90000000 0.00346100
2013-10-05 00:54:30 buy    9.80497000 0.00341100
2013-10-05 00:54:54 buy    0.09503000 0.00341100
2013-10-05 00:54:55 buy    9.87991000 0.00336100
2013-10-05 00:55:22 buy    9.88010000 0.00331100
2013-10-05 00:55:47 buy    9.88010000 0.00326100
2013-10-05 00:56:08 buy    9.82480648 0.00321100
2013-10-05 00:56:51 buy    0.07519352 0.00321100
2013-10-05 00:56:51 buy    9.86014648 0.00316100 4.98725870  1416.10244517 0.00390 47.5%      52.5%
2013-10-05 01:11:43 buy    9.83498104 0.00341100
2013-10-05 01:12:58 buy    0.06501896 0.00341100
2013-10-05 01:12:58 buy    9.87997104 0.00336100
2013-10-05 01:15:55 buy    9.90000000 0.00331100
2013-10-05 01:36:59 buy    9.81782000 0.00321100
2013-10-05 01:37:25 buy    0.08218000 0.00321100
2013-10-05 01:37:26 buy    9.87993000 0.00316100
2013-10-05 02:14:58 buy    9.90000000 0.00311100
2013-10-05 02:15:06 buy    9.90000000 0.00306100
2013-10-05 02:19:15 buy    9.90000000 0.00301100 4.73357329  1495.10402642 0.00305 50.9%      49.1%
2013-10-05 03:23:00 sell   8.99990000 0.00338900   
2013-10-05 03:24:42 sell   1.86236000 0.00343900
2013-10-05 03:24:59 sell   7.13764000 0.00343900
2013-10-05 03:25:53 sell   9.00000000 0.00348900
2013-10-05 03:26:30 sell   8.99990000 0.00353900
2013-10-05 03:27:13 sell   9.00000000 0.00358900   
2013-10-05 03:27:37 sell   9.00000000 0.00363900
2013-10-05 03:29:46 sell   9.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-05 03:30:23 sell   1.06521000 0.00373900
2013-10-05 03:32:30 sell   7.93479000 0.00373900
2013-10-05 03:32:34 sell   7.93661000 0.00378900 5.01967906  1415.16761642 0.00370 48.9%      51.1%
2013-10-05 03:33:09 sell   1.06339000 0.00378900
2013-10-05 04:07:37 buy    9.90000000 0.00346100
2013-10-05 04:10:49 buy    9.90000000 0.00341100   
2013-10-05 04:13:28 buy    9.82059031 0.00336100
2013-10-05 04:16:23 buy    9.90000000 0.00331100
2013-10-05 05:01:36 buy    9.88010000 0.00326100
2013-10-05 06:44:19 sell   7.99990000 0.00338900
2013-10-05 08:14:09 sell   8.00000000 0.00343900
2013-10-05 08:21:17 sell   8.00000000 0.00348900
2013-10-05 08:21:34 sell   8.00000000 0.00353900
2013-10-05 08:26:47 sell   9.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-05 08:27:02 sell   9.00000000 0.00373900
2013-10-05 08:46:17 sell   8.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-05 09:40:30 buy    9.90000000 0.00351100
2013-10-05 09:41:58 buy    9.90000000 0.00346100
2013-10-05 09:42:03 buy    9.90000000 0.00341100
2013-10-05 09:55:46 sell   8.00000000 0.00358900
2013-10-05 09:57:03 sell   7.20140000 0.00363900
2013-10-05 09:57:25 sell   0.79860000 0.00363900
2013-10-05 09:57:40 sell   8.00000000 0.00368900 5.04882938  1411.04681535 0.00370 49.2%      50.8%
2013-10-05 10:26:42 sell   8.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-05 10:31:30 sell   8.00000000 0.00373900
2013-10-05 12:18:48 buy    9.32497000 0.00356100
2013-10-05 12:22:36 buy    0.51762056 0.00356100
2013-10-05 12:22:44 buy    0.05740944 0.00356100
2013-10-05 12:22:44 buy    9.90000000 0.00351100
2013-10-05 12:25:36 buy    5.54290775 0.00346100
2013-10-05 12:27:36 buy    4.34828000 0.00346100
2013-10-05 12:34:30 buy    9.82147414 0.00341100
2013-10-05 12:35:20 buy    0.07852586 0.00341100
2013-10-05 12:35:20 buy    9.87994414 0.00336100
2013-10-05 13:17:29 sell   8.00000000 0.00378900
2013-10-05 13:39:44 sell   8.00000000 0.00383900
2013-10-05 13:39:44 sell   9.00000000 0.00388900 5.03274595  1419.41900501 0.00370 48.9%      51.1%
2013-10-05 13:59:04 sell   8.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-05 13:59:42 sell   8.00000000 0.00373900   
2013-10-05 13:59:42 sell   1.43646726 0.00378900
2013-10-05 13:59:59 sell   6.56353274 0.00378900
2013-10-05 13:59:59 sell   3.47010939 0.00383900
2013-10-05 15:00:08 sell   9.00000000 0.00398900
2013-10-05 15:03:44 sell   9.00000000 0.00403900
2013-10-05 15:22:35 sell   8.99990000 0.00408900
2013-10-05 18:02:07 buy    9.90000000 0.00371100
2013-10-05 18:03:16 buy    9.89990000 0.00366100
2013-10-05 18:03:31 buy    8.93697068 0.00361100
2013-10-05 20:29:10 buy    0.90236021 0.00361100
2013-10-05 20:59:14 buy    0.06066911 0.00361100
2013-10-05 20:59:14 buy    0.76019924 0.00356100
2013-10-05 20:59:45 buy    9.13980076 0.00356100 5.10044687  1404.46969584 0.00360 50.2%      49.8%
2013-10-05 22:35:53 buy    9.90000000 0.00356100   
2013-10-05 23:39:36 buy    1.80041814 0.00351100
2013-10-05 23:39:52 buy    8.09958186 0.00351100
2013-10-05 23:43:27 buy    9.90000000 0.00346100 4.99617018  1434.11029585 0.00345 50.2%      49.8%
Date       Time     Type PPC_Quantity BTC_Price  BTC_Balance PPC_Balance   Spot    BTC_weight PPC_weight
2013-10-06 01:37:09 sell   8.00000000 0.00358900
2013-10-06 03:20:08 sell   8.00000000 0.00363900
2013-10-06 03:20:25 sell   8.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-06 04:51:01 sell   7.99990000 0.00373900
2013-10-06 05:22:49 sell   7.97912000 0.00378900
2013-10-06 10:37:28 sell   6.00000000 0.00378900   
2013-10-06 12:19:22 sell   2.00000000 0.00378900
2013-10-06 13:08:43 sell   8.00000000 0.00383900 5.20425771  1378.13127585 0.00380 49.8%      50.2%
2013-10-06 16:14:09 buy    9.90000000 0.00366100
2013-10-06 16:14:09 buy    9.90000000 0.00361100   
2013-10-06 16:14:09 buy    9.90000000 0.00356100
2013-10-06 16:14:15 buy    9.90000000 0.00351100
2013-10-06 16:23:10 buy    5.69274102 0.00346100
2013-10-06 16:28:13 buy    4.20725898 0.00346100
2013-10-06 16:28:13 buy    9.90000000 0.00341100
2013-10-06 16:34:47 buy    9.88010000 0.00336100
2013-10-06 16:37:09 buy    9.88010000 0.00331100
2013-10-06 16:43:12 sell   8.00000000 0.00363900
2013-10-06 17:09:46 sell   8.00000000 0.00358900
2013-10-06 17:22:56 sell   8.00000000 0.00358900
2013-10-06 17:24:01 sell   8.00000000 0.00363900
2013-10-06 17:27:46 sell   8.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-06 18:20:15 buy    9.88010000 0.00346100
2013-10-06 18:36:23 sell   8.00000000 0.00363900
2013-10-06 18:36:27 sell   8.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-06 18:36:33 sell   8.00000000 0.00373900 5.12733292  1402.99349526 0.00365 50.0%      50.0%
2013-10-06 20:50:35 buy    9.90000000 0.00356100
2013-10-06 23:33:47 buy    0.10000000 0.00359877 5.09171915  1412.97349526 0.00355 50.4%      49.6%
Date       Time     Type PPC_Quantity BTC_Price  BTC_Balance PPC_Balance   Spot    BTC_weight PPC_weight
2013-10-06 23:33:47 exit -            -          5.09171915  1412.97349526 0.00355 50.4%      49.6%


My  Wealth
Because I have no preference for one coin, have no preference for any real asset I own, I will calculate my inital wealth and intermittent wealth in both PPC and BTC. And no, Dollars or Euros are no assets for me, there's no reason why I should calculate the wealth in fiat money. Looks good, but makes no sense.

Date       Time      BTC_Balance PPC_Balance   Spot     BTC_wealth PPC_wealth     gain
2013-09-29 01:57:46  4.93166438  1155.82162320 0.00180  7.01214330 3895.63516764  -
2013-09-29 21:03:36  3.73659314  1802.02271033 0.00192  7.19647674 3748.16497075  2.324%
2013-09-30 18:11:10  3.82984372  1763.68924129 0.00215  7.62177559 3545.01190176  0.206%
2013-10-01 19:46:40  3.97725437  1719.51428627 0.00240  8.10408866 3376.70360710  0.598%
2013-10-02 23:35:57  4.00221177  1724.93960439 0.00240  8.14206682 3392.52784189  0.469%
2013-10-03 16:35:12  4.05946641  1720.53960440 0.00240  8.22283918 3426.18299190  0.992%
2013-10-04 23:58:20  5.25114522  1337.16048899 0.00400 10.59978718 2649.94679399 -0,367%
2013-10-05 23:43:27  4.99617018  1434.11029585 0.00345  9.94385070 2882.27556541  1,038%
2013-10-06 23:33:47  5.09171915  1412.97349526 0.00355 10.10777506 2847.26057977  0.215%

[whifmoi]

Hey, what's that, a negative gain for the last day! How did this happen?

There have been no spikes, that I could profit from. Instead there was a long run up (for PPC, down for BTC), that I sold my PPC all the time. So I've got no gain from this, the worst case scenario is a gain of 0 with this strategy. Why is the gain negative?

a) It can happen if oneself miscalculates the maximum amounts to sell or to buy. This way oneself violates the riskless strategy. It happened to me the way up, where I sold too much of my PPC. It's better to underestimate the amount to sell or buy.

b) I yet don't know if my calc of the gain is accurate enough. With the huge increase of the exchange rate from 0.00240 to 0.00400 between the two days, my calc could be insufficient. I expect for this next day a readjustment of the gain on a high positive level again, because I did some contrarian trades already.

[whifmoi]

My lesson will last for the next 24 hours, then I will finish this. Discussion persists.

Again and again we are seeing this walls. Some of them seems honestly, until they are countervailed. Others are jumping around like clowns. Don't panic, do not permit this to influence your strategy. I had to buy against a wall to balance my assats again, see timestamp 2013-10-03 16:35:12 and the panic buy before.

Regardless of gold is manipulated down, and you do not hold some ounces of gold or silver, buy them and hold them. The manipulators perhaps build up something like a huge gold sell wall, but this will not last forever.

To phrase this more theoretically: If you see their walls, but they do not see yours, you have an informational advantage about them. Benefit from it. Sometimes it happened that a wall suddenly jumped in front of my nose, and I had to rebalance my assets.

[mhps]

... How can you objectively make a judgement to hang on or to stop loss (which probably would look like a "run with the herd" because the herd have been leaving due the reason you are to accept). ...

... However one has to understand the risk with this method.

There are no risks on exchange rate movement, if you believe in the merit of your assets.

You do have to assume that your assets will have a certain price belavior. You will lose your asset totally due to at least one type exchange rate action if you strictly execute your strategy:  the exchange rate drops down monotonously and never goes up again. Let's see what happens if the exchange rate of one of your chosen coin, coin A, loses 50% against the other coin (coin B) you choose every year.
In year 0 The exchange rate between the coins is 1.  You have 50 coin A, 50 coin B. You want to keep the asset allocation 50%-50% between coin A and coin B. Your total asset is 100 in unit of coin B.
In year 1 you have 25 coin B worth of coin A and 50 coin B and you rebalance to sell B and buy A so that you have 37.5 coin A (in unit of coin B) and 37.5 coin B.  Your total asset is 75 in unit of coin B.
In year 2 you have 18.75 coin A (in unit of coin B) and 37.5 coin B  and you rebalance to sell B and buy A so that you have 28.125 coin A and 28.125 coin B. Your total asset is 56.25 in unit of coin B.
This is what happens to your assets ( in unit of coin B) in the following years round to 1 decimal digit

Code: [Select]

year,  A-before-rebalance, B-before-rebalance, A-after-rebalance,  B-after-rebalance, total asset
00 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0
01 25.0 50.0 37.5 37.5 75.0
02 18.8 37.5 28.1 28.1 56.3
03 14.1 28.1 21.1 21.1 42.2
04 10.5 21.1 15.8 15.8 31.6
05 07.9 15.8 11.9 11.9 23.7
06 05.9 11.9 08.9 08.9 17.8
07 04.4 08.9 06.7 06.7 13.3
08 03.3 06.7 05.0 05.0 10.0
09 02.5 05.0 03.8 03.8 07.5
10 01.9 03.8 02.8 02.8 05.6
11 01.4 02.8 02.1 02.1 04.2
12 01.1 02.1 01.6 01.6 03.2
13 00.8 01.6 01.2 01.2 02.4
14 00.6 01.2 00.9 00.9 01.8
15 00.4 00.9 00.7 00.7 01.3
16 00.3 00.7 00.5 00.5 01.0
17 00.3 00.5 00.4 00.4 00.8
18 00.2 00.4 00.3 00.3 00.6
19 00.1 00.3 00.2 00.2 00.4

Essentially you will lose all your asset unless you bail (or stop loss) at some point. Given that cryptocurrencies have less than 5 years survival experience under their belt, It's very likely that any one of the coins will lose its popularity, hence price, due to technical or social reasons.

edit: typo

[whifmoi]

... How can you objectively make a judgement to hang on or to stop loss (which probably would look like a "run with the herd" because the herd have been leaving due the reason you are to accept). ...

... However one has to understand the risk with this method.

There are no risks on exchange rate movement, if you believe in the merit of your assets.

You do have to assume that your assets will have a certain price belavior. You will lose your asset totally due to at least one type exchange rate action if you strictly execute your strategy:  the exchange rate drops down monotonously and never goes up again. Let's see what happens if the exchange rate of one of your chosen coin, coin A, loses 50% against the other coin (coin B) you choose every year.
In year 0 The exchange rate between the coins is 1.  You have 50 coin A, 50 coin B. You want to keep the asset allocation 50%-50% between coin A and coin B. Your total asset is 100 in unit of coin B.
In year 1 you have 25 coin B worth of coin A and 50 coin B and you rebalance to sell B and buy A so that you have 37.5 coin A (in unit of coin B) and 37.5 coin B.  Your total asset is 75 in unit of coin B.
In year 2 you have 18.75 coin A (in unit of coin B) and 37.5 coin B  and you rebalance to sell B and buy A so that you have 28.125 coin A and 28.125 coin B. Your total asset is 56.25 in unit of coin B.
This is what happens to your assets ( in unit of coin B) in the following years round to 1 decimal digit

Code: [Select]

year,  A-before-rebalance, B-before-rebalance, A-after-rebalance,  B-after-rebalance, total asset
00 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0
01 25.0 50.0 37.5 37.5 75.0
02 18.8 37.5 28.1 28.1 56.3
03 14.1 28.1 21.1 21.1 42.2
04 10.5 21.1 15.8 15.8 31.6
05 07.9 15.8 11.9 11.9 23.7
06 05.9 11.9 08.9 08.9 17.8
07 04.4 08.9 06.7 06.7 13.3
08 03.3 06.7 05.0 05.0 10.0
09 02.5 05.0 03.8 03.8 07.5
10 01.9 03.8 02.8 02.8 05.6
11 01.4 02.8 02.1 02.1 04.2
12 01.1 02.1 01.6 01.6 03.2
13 00.8 01.6 01.2 01.2 02.4
14 00.6 01.2 00.9 00.9 01.8
15 00.4 00.9 00.7 00.7 01.3
16 00.3 00.7 00.5 00.5 01.0
17 00.3 00.5 00.4 00.4 00.8
18 00.2 00.4 00.3 00.3 00.6
19 00.1 00.3 00.2 00.2 00.4

Essentially you will lose all your asset unless you bail (or stop loss) at some point. Given that cryptocurrencies have less than 5 years survival experience under their belt, It's very likely that any one of the coins will lose its popularity, hence price, due to technical or social reasons.

edit: typo

I not yet got your description in total, but I believe, you asume a drop in the value of A. Why do you not think about a rise in the value of B?

[whifmoi]

I would calculate it like this:

Code: [Select]

year,  A-before-rebalance, B-before-rebalance, A-after-rebalance,  B-after-rebalance, total asset in A, total asset in B
00 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 100.0
01 50.0 50.0 75.0 37.5 150.0 75.0
02 75.0 37.5 112.5 28.125 225.0 56.25
...


[whifmoi]

I finish my lessen now, with much more success I expected. The average of the gain over the last 7 days is 0.437% for every day. I did not include the first day here, because I had to invest higher amounts for firstly balancing my assets.

The massive volatility on btc-e last night improved my result. But my gain last day was lower as I expected, because the volatility on vircurex was much lower. Any other contrarians here, that are my only competitors?

Nothing changed on the characteristics and quality of Peercoins, so this massive dump is simply destroying his own wealth. Remind a PPCoin stays a PPCoin independently of its exchange rate. You loose nothing if you do not trade anything, your wealth stays the same. The trade essentially does change your wealth: buy low/sell high you have a loss, buy low/sell high you have a gain. This contrarian constraint explained herein forces you to withstand greed an panic. If you follow it, worst case is mean gain of 0.